Why you shouldn't take North Korea's threats seriously

One should have been living in a dark underground cave for the past 2 months, if they haven’t heard about the escalating tensions between North Korea on the one hand and South Korea and the USA on the other. Most recently CBS announced on April 10 that North Korea is urging all foreign companies and tourists in South Korea to evacuate because “the rival Koreas are on the eve of nuclear war”. This comes shortly after the declaration of Kim Jong-un’s government that it can’t guarantee the safety of the foreign diplomats in its capital of Pyongyang after April 10.

Long story short: after the North Korea’s announcement from January 24, which pointed out the intensions of the country to target the United States in its missile and nuclear programs, the rhetoric of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPKR) towards its southern neighbor and the USA is continuously increasing its aggressiveness. In response to North Korea's third nuclear test conducted, the UN Security Council unanimously passed the resolution 2094 to impose additional sanctions on the country. Immediately after that the Kim Jong-un’s government declared a closure of the joint border crossing with South Korea and cutting off the hotline to the South – the last remaining communication link between the two countries. The culmination of the conflict so far was reached on March 30 when the DPKR declared it was in “a state of war” with South Korea.

How seriously should these threats from North Korea be taken?

Despite the recent happenings, political analysts claim that the Democratic People’s Republic is not going to take real actions or attack first, since starting a war with the Western world would most probably destroy the country and the established totalitarian regime there. One of the explanations for North Korea’s behavior is that Kim Jong-un wants to strengthen his position as nation’s leader and to show to his people and military that despite of his young age, he is able to act tough against American imperialism.

Andrei Lankov, former North Korean resident and one of the top world experts on the topic, gave another interpretation of the problem in an interview for the ABC on April 1. According to him, for many years North Korea “has played the same trick” the government is currently using. The state creates artificial crisis situations, drives tensions high and as a result “the international community and the major players begin to feel unwell and tense and insecure”. At that moment, the Democratic People’s Republic softens its position and shows itself as ready to start negotiations on the issue, during which they succeed to extract aid and further financial support in order to return to the status quo. “So, they first manufacture a crisis, and then they get paid for resolving the crisis. ”, Mr. Lankov concluded. The experts stated that it would be better, if the world doesn’t pay much attention to Kim Jong-un’s threats.

China’s role in the conflict

A key statement on the issue was made by the Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BOAO economic forum in Hainan, as the BBC reported yesterday. "No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains", Mr. Xi claimed during his speech. The relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have cooled after the death of the former North Korean leader– Kim Jong-il – in December 2011. As Mr. Dr. Juan Santos Vara stated during the opening ceremony of MUNUSAL 2013, “China is fed up with North Korea” due to Kim Jong-un’s aggressive political language and inability to pay respect to the politicians in Beijing, who are the main financial supporters of his state.

However, one should bear in mind that China is not interested in losing its influence in North Korea or causing a regime change. The reasons are more than trivial: a potential collapse of the political system in the DPRK may lead to massive refugee wave from North Korea to north-east China. What is more, one unified Korea may align with Washington, leaving Beijing with a US ally right on its border.